UFC 300 best bets: 1st fight of the night to end in violent fashion

We're one day away from the blockbuster UFC 300 card.

In Saturday's main event, Alex Pereira is set to make the first defense of his light heavyweight title against former champion Jamahal Hill.

The card also features a strawweight title bout between champ Zhang Weili and Yan Xiaonan, as well as a BMF title clash between Justin Gaethje and Max Holloway.

Pereira is slightly favored to retain the 205-pound belt, sitting at -130 on theScore Bet. This is a super close fight on paper, so +110 on Hill is the better play if you want to pick a side. That said, it's too much of a 50-50 matchup for me to comfortably lay money down on a winner. If you really want to get in on the action, -475 on Pereira-Hill not going the distance is an expensive - but not horrible - parlay piece.

Before the action gets underway at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, here are the two best bets for the event.

Jiri Prochazka (-110) to beat Aleksandar Rakic

You're telling me Jiri Prochazka, the former light heavyweight champion who was favored to beat Pereira in his last bout, is now even money against Aleksandar Rakic?

Sure, Prochazka suffered a knockout loss to Pereira - but so does everyone else. Prochazka looked pretty good in the UFC 295 main event last November before he fell victim to the current champion's otherworldly power. It happens.

Rakic, while a solid contender in theory, hasn't competed in the Octagon since tearing his ACL in May 2022. For that reason alone, this is undoubtedly a step down in competition for Prochazka.

Rakic is the more technical fighter, controlling the range on the feet and mixing in wrestling to outwork his opponents. But Prochazka is a wild man, a Czech knockout artist who throws strikes from odd angles and catches you when you least expect it. Expect Prochazka to use his funky movement and style to control this fight.

As long as the former champ can stay upright - which he was able to fairly often against grappling extraordinaire Glover Teixeira back in 2022 - he'll have what it takes to beat Rakic. After all, it wasn't that long ago that Prochazka was considered the best 205-pound fighter on the planet.

Figueiredo-Garbrandt does not go the distance (-180)

The UFC knew what it was doing when it made Deiveson Figueiredo versus Cody Garbrandt the first fight of the night. Does this matchup between a former flyweight champion and a former bantamweight champion deserve to be on the televised prelims? Probably. Will Figueiredo and Garbrandt open up the mega UFC 300 card in the most exciting and violent way possible? Also probable.

Garbrandt tends to get into brawls when he shouldn't - that's what lost him the 135-pound belt back in 2017, and that's what got him knocked out three more times since then. However, Garbrandt showed in his last fight against Brian Kelleher that if he lands first, he can still shut the lights out. On the other side of the Octagon this weekend will be Figueiredo, a fighter who won't back down from a scrap himself. And the Brazilian can crack.

Whether it's Figueiredo earning his second straight win as a bantamweight or Garbrandt finally getting back into the top 10 of the division, it sure feels like someone's going to sleep in the UFC 300 curtain-jerker. If you're confident the fight will end particularly early, you could take the under 1.5 rounds prop at +155. But to be safe, I'll bet it won't the distance at -180 odds. Either way, don't blink.

Here are the full odds for UFC 300 on April 13:

Main card (ESPN+ PPV at 10 p.m. ET)

• Alex Pereira (-130) vs. Jamahal Hill (+110)
• Zhang Weili (-550) vs. Yan Xiaonan (+375)
• Justin Gaethje (-160) vs. Max Holloway (+135)
• Arman Tsarukyan (-220) vs. Charles Oliveira (+180)
• Bo Nickal (-1700) vs. Cody Brundage (+850)

Preliminary card (ESPN at 8 p.m. ET)

• Jiri Prochazka (-110) vs. Aleksandar Rakic (-110)
• Aljamain Sterling (-175) vs. Calvin Kattar (+145)
• Kayla Harrison (-475) vs. Holly Holm (+340)
• Diego Lopes (-150) vs. Sodiq Yusuff (+125)

Early preliminary card (ESPN at 6 p.m. ET)

• Jalin Turner (-245) vs. Renato Moicano (+200)
• Jessica Andrade (-135) vs. Marina Rodriguez (+115)
• Bobby Green (-180) vs. Jim Miller (+150)
• Deiveson Figueiredo (-290) vs. Cody Garbrandt (+235)