UFC 277 predictions: Will Pena become 1st to beat Nunes twice?
Ahead of Saturday's UFC 277 in Dallas, theScore's Nick Baldwin makes his picks for the top bouts.
Women's bantamweight championship
Julianna Pena (11-4)
vs.
Amanda Nunes (21-5)
Going into UFC 269 last December, Pena knew she'd have to beat Nunes twice. After all, Nunes was the consensus greatest women's MMA fighter of all time. She had laid waste to the bantamweight division - and then featherweight - for years.
Now, Pena has an opportunity to prove her shocking second-round submission of Nunes was anything but a fluke - that she is the better fighter and is ready to put Nunes behind her and truly start her reign as the bantamweight queen.
But that'll be easier said than done.
Until Pena proves otherwise, Nunes is still the better fighter when they're both at 100%. Nunes did not look herself in their first meeting. She was a lot more wild than usual and, as a result, gassed out. Generally, Nunes is a lot more technical than Pena. She is usually the better striker and might even be better on the ground. And this is all what we'll see materialize in the rematch.
For Pena to win, she needs to employ a similar game plan as last time: survive the early storm and then get in Nunes' face and roughen her up. She can't stand at kickboxing range with Nunes. Instead, she needs to put on the pressure, land big shots on the inside, and try to make Nunes wilt again. When the time is right, she needs to take Nunes to the ground and sink in another submission.
Will lightning strike twice for Pena? Or is she simply just better? Maybe. But I suspect Nunes will show up at her best and fight intelligently. She's had seven months to think about the loss and learn from it; seven months to figure out how she can get the belt back. Expect "The Lioness" to do just that.
The pick: Nunes, unanimous decision
Interim flyweight championship
Brandon Moreno (19-6-2)
vs.
Kai Kara-France (24-9, 1 NC)
The flyweights have an opportunity to once again steal the show.
Moreno and Kara-France will meet in a rematch with far more at stake than in their December 2019 clash, as the winner will go on to face Deiveson Figueiredo for the undisputed title.
Moreno defeated Kara-France by unanimous decision two-and-a-half years ago and is favored to make it 2-0 against the Australian knockout artist - and rightfully so.
The former champion is a serious submission threat and is also a sharp boxer who continues to make leaps in the stand-up department. Moreno will have to use a mix of his skill sets to beat Kara-France. However, expect Moreno to pull away down the stretch thanks to his experience in five-round fights.
The pick: Moreno, unanimous decision
Heavyweight bout
Derrick Lewis (26-9, 1 NC)
vs.
Sergei Pavlovich (15-1)
Pavlovich looked like someone who could make some serious waves in the heavyweight division when he returned to the Octagon in March after 29 months away, crushing Shamil Abdurakhimov via first-round TKO. But it's a different kind of animal when you're fighting Lewis, the owner of the most knockouts in UFC history.
Pavlovich is probably going to have a strong start. He might get Lewis on the mat, or just stay away from him and land some shots on the feet. But I can't help but think that eventually "The Black Beast" is going to come alive and punch - literally and figuratively - his ticket back into the winner's circle.
The pick: Lewis, second-round knockout
Light heavyweight bout
Magomed Ankalaev (17-1)
vs.
Anthony Smith (36-16)
Smith has returned to the light heavyweight title picture with three straight wins, which came on the heels of a 1-3 stretch that made it seem as if his days as a contender were over.
But unfortunately for "Lionheart," this is where his winning streak will come to a screeching halt.
Ankalaev has long been praised as the future of the 205-pound division, and it's hard not to view him as exactly that. Though his last two fights weren't very entertaining, Ankalaev continues to cruise past each opponent and has no obvious holes in his game.
That trend of Ankalaev dominating will continue against Smith. Ankalaev is younger, has way less wear and tear on his body, and hits harder. Smith's best shot at pulling off the upset will be getting Ankalaev to the mat and submitting him. Still, that won't be an easy task at all. I see Ankalaev rising to the occasion in a big way here, making UFC president Dana White's job that much harder when deciding who's next in line for champion Jiri Prochazka.
The pick: Ankalaev, second-round TKO
