Is Burnes the finishing touch on an Orioles juggernaut?

In the late summer of 2019, I half-jokingly tweeted that the Baltimore Orioles might be the 2012 Houston Astros.

Those Astros were a laughingstock in the middle of three straight 100-loss seasons. But they were also accumulating prospects and pioneering player-development practices, and the 108-loss Orioles of 2019 were doing the same.

The Orioles adopted much of the same process by hiring away Astros lieutenants Mike Elias, now the Orioles' general manager, and Sig Mejdal, an assistant GM, to lead the rebuilding project.

The Astros' turnaround was as dramatic as it was fast. Houston was in the playoffs by 2015 and eclipsed 100 victories and won the World Series in 2017. The Orioles are moving even more quickly: They authored one of the 10 biggest year-to-year improvements in win percentage in 2022.

The Orioles' rebuild accelerated in part because their executives had learned which practices and experiments worked in Houston.

The 2017 Astros were missing a critical piece - a proven ace - and traded for Justin Verlander at the end of August. On Thursday night, a rising Orioles juggernaut with the same void might have made a similarly significant addition by acquiring Corbin Burnes from the Milwaukee Brewers.

Like the 2017 Astros, the Orioles have an elite, emerging young core and a top farm system. They ranked fourth in WAR accumulated by position players 25 and under last year, led by young stars Gunnar Henderson and Adley Rutschman. They enter this season with Baseball America's No. 1-ranked farm system and the game's consensus No. 1 prospect, Jackson Holliday.

They filled their closer spot with free agent Craig Kimbrel earlier in the offseason, but Baltimore still needed an ace starter - the type that can lift a team, especially in the postseason when the best pitchers take on a greater share of innings.

Verlander was 5-0 in five starts with the Astros in August 2017, posting a 1.06 ERA. He went on to win five of his six postseason starts, including two in the ALCS against the Yankees, earning him series MVP honors. In Game 2, perhaps the signature performance of his storied career, he threw a 124-pitch shutout. Facing elimination in Game 6, he tossed eight more shutout innings.

While trades are generally evaluated on projected future regular-season value - and this deal is relatively even in that regard - a source said Burnes' potential postseason impact was very much part of the Orioles' calculus.

Since Burnes discovered his cut fastball while throwing from a synthetic turf mound in his suburban Phoenix backyard during the winter of 2019-20 - seeking ways to improve on his awful 2019 (8.82 ERA) - he's been one of the best pitchers in MLB.

From 2020-23, Burnes is second in WAR (17.9), fifth in ERA (2.86), and seventh in K-BB% rate (23.8) among all qualified starting pitchers.

He's one of the game's legitimate aces and he extends an Orioles staff that enjoyed second-half breakouts from Grayson Rodriguez and Kyle Bradish last year. Baltimore should also get a full year from John Means, who returned from Tommy John surgery late last season.

Burnes' strikeout rate fell a tick in 2023, and his fastball velocity declined from 96.2 mph in 2022 to 95.5 mph, which might give some people pause. But like the Astros did with Verlander, perhaps the Orioles' excellent player development and coaching teams can get even more out of him.

And although 2023 was a "down" year for Burnes, who was unhappy with his contract situation, he was still comfortably one of the best 20 pitchers in the league.

Unlike Verlander when the Astros traded for him the first time, Burnes is a free agent after the season. It's unclear, maybe even unlikely, that the Orioles will be able to sign him to an extension - through new majority ownership could change the Orioles' spending patterns.

Even if Baltimore can't extend him, the team has the farm system to trade for another ace if needed. After the 2017 season, with Verlander still under contract, the Astros added Gerrit Cole.

While the Orioles traded away talented left-hander DL Hall to land Burnes, Hall might have been limited to the bullpen in Baltimore. The other player in the deal, slick-fielding shortstop Joey Ortiz, was never going to play ahead of Henderson or Holliday on the left side of the Orioles' infield. The O's also traded a compensatory pick in the June draft, but the package doesn't threaten their status as one of the premier farm systems.

For the 2017 Astros, an ace was a finishing touch on their rebuild. Perhaps that's what Burnes will be for the Orioles.

Travis Sawchik is theScore's senior baseball writer.