MLB Tuesday best bets: Expect more fireworks in Houston
We started this week the same way we finished last: with a 2-1 record. That's been a common theme for our best bets as we've gone 2-1 in five of the past six nights.
While not perfect, we are turning a consistent profit. Let's take a look at some standout plays on Tuesday's card as we look to keep the ball moving in the right direction.
The first game of this series brought real fireworks, with the Orioles grinding out a win in a back-and-forth affair that featured 15 runs.
I don't know that I'd expect another 15 this time around, but there's certainly potential for plenty of more offense.
Kyle Gibson is sporting an ERA near 5.00 on the season, and his game is trending downward. He's conceded at least three earned runs in six of the past seven games, and his underlying profile is stuffed with red flags.
Gibson is throwing a lot of balls, his xwOBA is poor, and he's giving up barrels at an above-average clip, with the homers following suit. All of that is a recipe for disaster against a scorching-hot Astros team that's plated 6.19 runs per game (second most) in September.
The Astros should be able to get to Gibson early and really stress an Orioles bullpen - albeit a good one - that's used six relievers in back-to-back days.
While the Astros are in perhaps a better spot to create offense, the Orioles are more than capable of doing their share of the heavy lifting.
They've scored 6.06 runs per game in September (fourth most), and Hunter Brown isn't exactly at the top of his game, either. He's allowed 17 runs over the past five starts and hasn't pitched into the sixth inning in any of them.
Batted-ball luck hasn't worked in his favor, but you're asking for trouble when giving up flyballs in bulk, which has been the case with Brown over the past handful of games.
Look for both teams to score their fair share of runs in what should be another competitive and high-scoring contest.
Bet: Over 8.5 (-130)
Logan Allen over 4.5 strikeouts
Allen is on a nice little strikeout run. He's amassed at least five Ks in 10 of his past 13 starts, with two of the exceptions coming against a Blue Jays team that's been very stingy against left-handed pitchers all season long.
Success should continue coming Allen's way Tuesday night against the Royals. They've struggled with their discipline at the plate for quite some time against left-handers.
Seven of the past eight lefties the Royals have faced recorded at least five strikeouts before leaving the game.
I don't expect the tune to change against Allen, who's already gone over this number twice in two tries against the Royals this season.
Odds: -105 (playable to -130)
Luis Castillo under 1.5 walks
Castillo has walked multiple batters in three straight games, the longest such streak of his season.
There's plenty of reason to expect him to get back on track Tuesday. For one, Castillo has a mouthwatering matchup against the Athletics. They don't hit for average, they strike out a ton, and they don't have the patience and discipline to earn many free passes.
Right-handed starters have gone under this number in 10 of the past 14 games against the Athletics. That shouldn't be surprising given only six teams have generated walks at a lesser rate during the month of September.
Despite Castillo's walk uptick of late, his ball percentage the past month is actually lower than his season average.
Look for him to get back on track in this advantagous spot.
Odds: -105 (playable to -125)
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.
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