2023 MLB futures: Best bets to win AL MVP
We began our MLB season preview content Monday with a closer look at the World Series market and some of the best values at current prices.
Up next on the list is the most prestigious player award: the MVP. We'll start in the American League.
Note: Listed players 50-1 or shorter.
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Shohei Ohtani | +225 |
| Aaron Judge | +450 |
| Mike Trout | +500 |
| Julio Rodriguez | +800 |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | +1200 |
| Yordan Alvarez | +1200 |
| Jose Ramirez | +1600 |
| Wander Franco | +1800 |
| Corey Seager | +2500 |
| Rafael Devers | +2500 |
| Adley Rutschman | +3000 |
| Byron Buxton | +3000 |
| Bo Bichette | +4000 |
| George Springer | +4000 |
| Jeremy Pena | +4000 |
| Kyle Tucker | +4000 |
| Luis Robert | +4000 |
| Marcus Semien | +4000 |
| Tim Anderson | +4000 |
| Alex Bregman | +5000 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | +5000 |
| Carlos Correa | +5000 |
| Giancarlo Stanton | +5000 |
| Jose Altuve | +5000 |
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (+1200)
Guerrero put forth a disappointing 2022 campaign by his standards. While his overall numbers were still strong, he went through patches of inconsistency and at times really struggled to get the ball in the air. It's tough to pile up the home runs and counting stats needed to contend for an MVP like that.
I think Guerrero had to endure a bit of a mental block; a lengthy offseason should do him wonders and allow for a much-needed reset.
Not to mention that he has the raw talent, baseball IQ, and support system - his dad was pretty good! - to make the necessary adjustments and come back stronger.
With improved pitching and team defense, the Toronto Blue Jays are well-positioned to have a better year in a shiftless MLB season. I think they're going to win a lot of games, and Guerrero should be at the forefront of it all.
Most projection systems have Guerrero as a top-five hitter in terms of offensive value provided in 2023 - not in the AL, but in the league. He's also a much-improved defender.
I thus see value in backing Guerrero to win AL MVP with his implied chance of just around 7.7%.
Yordan Alvarez (+1200)
I know there are a lot of mouths to feed on the Houston Astros - and other stars may command some votes - but I still believe there's plenty of value backing Alvarez at this price.
Last season, Aaron Judge put forth a historically dominant hitting campaign - and Alvarez's xwOBA was only 0.001 behind the New York Yankees star's.
Alvarez hits for insane power, gets on base a ton, and bats in the heart of an order on a stacked Astros team that has a real shot at leading the majors in wins (and runs scored).
Pitchers won't be able to pitch around Alvarez with so much talent in front and behind him. They're going to have to stand in there and go right at him - with worse positioned defenses behind them, at that.
I think Alvarez is going to post video-game numbers and, at +1200, offers great value as the best player on a World Series-caliber roster.
Carlos Correa (+5000)
Correa fared very well in his debut season with the Minnesota Twins, hitting .291 while getting on base just under 37% of the time.
His underlyings were very encouraging as well. He posted the second-highest barrel rate of his MLB career and made hard contact 44.7% of the time, his best output since 2017. He also ranked 10th in the American League in offensive WAR. Correa is a damn good hitter.
I think the Twins have potential to surprise this season in a very weak division. If they can do so, Correa figures to be front and center in that charge along with Byron Buxton (when healthy).
Correa has a real chance of being one of the AL leaders in hits. Should his power numbers spike a little bit, he could sneak into the AL MVP conversation.
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.