Skip to content

How will the shift ban alter workflow for infielders?

Michael Starghill / Getty Images

SAN DIEGO - The last infield shift for the foreseeable future happened during the ninth inning of Game 6 in the World Series when the Houston Astros positioned shortstop Jeremy Pena to the right of second base against Philadelphia Phillies left-handed hitter Bryce Harper. Harper hit a fly ball to left for the penultimate out of the 2022 season.

Next season, under one of the new rules being implemented by Major League Baseball, teams will need two infielders on each side of second base at the release of a pitch. None of them can be standing on the outfield grass. The rule is widely expected to help left-handed hitters, who see more shifts with three infielders on one side of the base - 21.5% of pitches for lefties versus 12.3% for right-handers last season, according to MLB Statcast.

Teams are already working to find the optimal positioning within these new parameters. At the winter meetings in San Diego, Arizona Diamondbacks manager Torey Lovullo said, "We've been having those conversations.

"I don't want to put anybody in a situation where they're going to make a fool of themselves, but we feel like we can maybe circumvent the system and the process a little bit to get an out where you might be getting a base hit otherwise. We've thrown so much out there."

As teams scheme, we were curious to see how the shift ban might affect the value of infield defensive positions. Which defensive positions might lose opportunities, and which could gain? Where might gloves become more important?

We asked the staff at Sports Info Solutions, which houses a wealth of shift and positioning data, to look into this question by comparing all fully shifted plays from 2022 against partially shifted plays over the last several seasons. Fully shifted plays have at least three infielders situated to one side of second base; partially shifted plays have two infielders on either side of second but not in traditional straight-away positions. The assumption is that teams will still shift as much as they're allowed next season.

Ezra Shaw / Getty Images

What did the investigation tell us?

Infielders on the right side of the infield are likely to see more action with a shift ban in place, while those on the left side are likely to lose chances. This makes some anecdotal sense as it was often shortstops, and sometimes third basemen, who swung around to the right side of second base against left-handed hitters.

Sports Info Solutions found that second basemen would have gained 200.5 chances on batted balls in a shift-less MLB last year, and first basemen would have gained 177.4. Conversely, third basemen would have lost 294.8 such chances, and shortstops would have seen the greatest decline, losing 556.4 chances.

While this projects to a modest 3% decline in total chances for shortstops, it's still less defensive activity for a position teams have spent $1 billion on in free agency this offseason.

Shortstops had already lost chances in recent years because of the strikeout surge. Shortstops had 4.01 chances per nine innings last year, down from 4.67 in 2002 - a 14% reduction. Only second basemen had a greater decline of involvement over that span, with total chances per nine innings down 16% from 2002 (5.0 to 4.2). Those middle-infield chances were up from the lows of 2020 (3.89 chances per nine innings for shortstops and 4.08 for second basemen) as strikeout rates ticked down the last two seasons after MLB began policing pitchers' use of sticky substances.

Beyond the slight changes in opportunities, individual skill at each position becomes more important since there will be more ground to cover. Teams will no longer be able to mask deficiencies by overloading an infield.

"Taking away the shift, the more athletic, more dynamic players you can get, the better that's going to help," Chicago Cubs manager David Ross said at the winter meetings.

Doug Pensinger / Getty

Lovullo said it's the "four-hole," the space between the second baseman and first baseman, that will be most sensitive to the shift ban.

"The flooding of the right side of the field seems to affect the left-handed hitters more so than anything. It's really that four-hole. ... That hole is going to stay open," he said.

How teams work with and around the new constraint of the ban will be interesting to monitor. Will they creatively position outfielders as well?

Phillies manager Rob Thomson said alignment and data will become even more important.

"I think there's going to be more emphasis on where you put those two guys on each side, and that's going to be critical," Thomson said. "I think you really have to do a good job of looking at spray charts and things like that to make sure that rover, if you will - it's going to be either the shortstop or second baseman - is placed in the right spot on that side of the diamond."

In an industry where so much is now quantified and understood, the ban will be a fascinating unknown to watch early next season. But one thing that seems likely is there will be more opportunity for those defending on the right side of the infield.

Travis Sawchik is theScore's senior baseball writer.

Daily Newsletter

Get the latest trending sports news daily in your inbox