10 thoughts from the winter meetings' hot stove
SAN DIEGO - For a second consecutive offseason, MLB is enjoying a frenzied start to its traditionally slow-to-warm hot-stove season.
Last year, a record $1.9 billion was spent on free agents in November because of a looming lockout by owners. Previously, the month had never seen as much as $1 billion spent before. This year, $2.1 billion has been spent through Dec. 7.
This year's flurry of activity has been more organic since there's no labor strife on the horizon. Perhaps MLB's hot-stove season will start to feature such early action more regularly. It would be good for the game.
So what to make of another frenzied start to the offseason? The following are 10 thoughts from my four days at the Manchester Grand Hyatt in San Diego:
1. A good chunk of the dollars spent were tied to Aaron Judge. There was no doubt Judge was going to be handsomely paid. But entering his courtship period, there was doubt whether Judge would receive a 10-year offer or close to it.
The only superstar free-agency comparables to Judge this century, considering both performance and age, were Albert Pujols' deal with the Los Angeles Angels in 2011 (10 years, $245 million), and Robinson Cano's deal with the Seattle Mariners in 2013 (10 years, $240 million).
Even though the Pujols and Cano deals went south, and even though clubs are more aware of athletes' aging patterns, the 30-year-old Judge reportedly received a 10-year offer from the Padres. The New York Yankees were forced to get very close to that deal, countering with nine years and $360 million, a deal that Judge ultimately accepted because the value of his legacy as a career Yankee surpassed the extra year and dollars with the Padres.
What Judge's deal tells us: Superstar players are generally always going to have markets that force years and dollars up. Lengthy deals are not going away. To enjoy a star's remaining elite seasons, teams will have to also pay for the steep decline years. But there's a big reason to believe Judge will age more gracefully than Pujols or Cano: he's a better athlete. Judge posted career highs in steals (16) and games played in center field (78) last season.
2. Which is the better investment: Jacob deGrom's contract or the Justin Verlander deal?
There's a strong case to be made that the New York Mets did very well in replacing deGrom with the reigning AL Cy Young winner, at perhaps less than half the overall cost depending on the third-year option. But the Mets did reduce their ultimate 2023 and 2024 ceiling by swapping deGrom for Verlander.
As good as Verlander is, deGrom, when healthy, is peerless. He's also five years younger than Verlander, and deGrom's skill level has remarkably been increasing.
Since 2020, among pitchers to toss at least 100 innings in that span, deGrom leads the majors in strikeout-minus-walk rate (37.9%), which isolates what pitchers most control. He's 14 percentage points better than Verlander, who ranks 29th. DeGrom trails only Edwin Diaz in strikeout rate and is tied with Diaz for the best FIP- mark. DeGrom is like an elite closer who starts.
The question with deGrom is risk. He hasn't thrown 200 innings since 2019.
But it's not like Verlander comes risk free. He's entering his age-40 season, and has thrown nearly 2,000 more innings than deGrom (3,163 to 1,326). Since 1960, there have been seven seasons of five-plus WAR by pitchers age 40 and older: Nolan Ryan accounts for three, Roger Clemens two, and Randy Johnson and John Smoltz each produced one. Johnson and Smoltz each fell off in performance at 41.
At 35, deGrom enjoys a better chance to be elite for longer - and no pitcher provides a higher ceiling.
3. Another fascinating aspect of deGrom's decision is that he didn't go to a contender. The Rangers finished 38 games behind the Houston Astros last year. With Verlander and deGrom off the board, top contenders are scrambling for top-of-the-rotation arms. It could really give Carlos Rodon's market a boost. He remains the top unsigned starter.
4. Philadelphia had an excellent showing in San Diego. Trea Turner is a perfect fit for the Phillies, who sorely needed to upgrade their infield defense and overall athleticism. Turner's broad skill set made him the best shortstop available in a deep class.
The Phillies added depth to their pitching staff and added one of the most intriguing picks in the Rule 5 Draft, Noah Song. Song hasn't pitched in two years because of his service in the U.S. Navy. But he touches 99 mph and Driveline Baseball's Kyle Boddy said he would have been a first-round pick out of college if not for military service.
5. One of the most polarizing players signed at the winter meetings was Cody Bellinger, who agreed to a one-year, $17-million deal with the Chicago Cubs.
Even if Bellinger doesn't return close to his 2019 NL MVP form, he owns a higher floor than some might suspect, as he's a well above-average defender in center field, a good baserunner, and a .256 career batter when there's no shift. There's also a lack of left-handed power in the game.
He will also be two full years removed from shoulder surgery. His upside is still considerable. He's shown excellent power and plate discipline in the past. He's always been streaky, but it's difficult to believe he's forgotten how to hit. He's already begun looking for ways to improve his swing and approach this offseason.
6. The Cubs are having a sneaky good offseason. Not only was Bellinger a low-risk, high-upside signing, but Jameson Taillon is at the very least a solid mid-rotation option. He owns a five-pitch mix with plus command, should be better away from the AL East, and could reach another level if he can enjoy just a slight bump in velocity or spin.
7. Why are the Padres being so aggressive? Manny Machado can opt out of his deal after the 2023 season. Juan Soto is two years away from free agency. They've traded much talent from their farm system. Their time is now and it's good for the game to see a mid-market team be so aggressive.
8. Yes, the Blue Jays have work to do, but it's still early. Spring training camps don't open for another 78 days and they have a surplus in one of the scarcest commodities in the game: catching talent. Ideally, Toronto will add an impact left-handed bat, but the best one on the market, Brandon Nimmo, re-signed with the Mets on Thursday.
9. Speaking of catchers and trades, there were no trades at the winter meetings perhaps because clubs focused on filling needs through free agency. Oakland figures to be moving catcher Sean Murphy at some point, and there's no team with greater need at the position than Cleveland, whose catchers hit a combined .178 last year with a 55 wRC+ - the worst team batting average at the position since the Guardians hit .138 in 2020, the all-time low for a team. The Guardians have to acquire a catcher at some point.
10. Seeing the Red Sox operate like a mid-market team is perplexing. Boston could have enjoyed a Mookie Betts-Xander Bogaerts-Rafael Devers core for years. Now it just has Devers. The Red Sox payroll topped the game as recently as 2019 and now ranks 18th in commitments for 2023.
Travis Sawchik is theScore's senior baseball writer.