MLB Monday best bets: Bats to shine in Anaheim
Our weekend best bets were a mixed bag as we won one play, pushed one, and lost the other.
We'll look to get back to our winning ways with two bets for Monday night's slate.
The Seattle Mariners enter play Monday in fine form, having won five of their last six games.
This is a good spot for their success to continue, especially in the early going. While George Kirby and Tyler Wells have both been a little lucky as of late, Kirby has a much more encouraging underlying profile than his Baltimore Orioles counterpart.
The Mariners hurler has struck out 23% of the batters he's faced over the last month. His BABIP is about where it should be, and his xFIP (3.50) and SIERA (3.41) are pretty good. Kirby is also sporting an encouraging 45.9% ground-ball rate.
As for the Orioles, they rank 26th in wOBA and have posted the league's second-highest strikeout percentage versus right-handers over the last couple of weeks.
If you're into matchup numbers, Kirby struck out eight and conceded zero runs the last time he faced Baltimore. He should be able to handle himself well.
I'm not sure I can say the same about Wells. He owns a 4.57 FIP, 5.19 xFIP, and 5.35 SIERA over the last month. Oh, and he's struck out only 14% of the batters he's faced while walking nearly 10%. His 2.00 ERA during this stretch has been due to luck; he's rocking an unsustainably low .179 BABIP.
Sooner or later, some balls will drop against him, and the runs will pile up when that happens.
Perhaps this is the night the regression begins. The Mariners rank seventh in walk rate and 15th in wOBA against righties over the last couple of weeks. Their offense isn't lethal, but it's good enough to give Kirby the run support he needs.
I think Seattle wins this game, but there's more value in backing the Mariners to lead through five.
Bet: Mariners F5 -0.5 (-110)
Giolito has been one of the game's worst pitchers in that time. He owns a 7.14 FIP and 9.47 ERA, and his strikeout-to-walk ratio isn't where you'd expect it to be.
Giolito has also been a little unlucky, but that's because he's giving up a lot of hard contact and fly balls. His ground-ball rate sits below 30% over his last 25-plus innings.
The Los Angeles Angels aren't exactly the hottest or deepest offense, but they do have real pop. They rank 11th in ISO and eighth in fly-ball rate against right-handers over the last two weeks. That's not an ideal matchup for a struggling pitcher in Giolito who's conceded nine homers over the last month.
While Syndergaard has done a good job of keeping the ball inside the park, that's about the only thing he's doing well. His strikeout numbers are way down (14.6 K%), he's rocking a FIP of nearly 5.0, and his fly-ball rate is equal to his ground-ball rate. That's not a good sign for the reinvented version of Thor who relies more on inducing grounders than blowing the ball past you.
Syndergaard will have a difficult time getting back to where he needs to be against a red-hot Chicago White Sox offense. Chicago sits fifth in wOBA versus right-handers over the last couple of weeks, behind only the San Diego Padres, Atlanta Braves, Boston Red Sox, and Los Angeles Dodgers.
The total is too low considering the pitching matchup, the lineups' power, and the hot, hitter-friendly environment.
Bet: Over 8.5 (-115)
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.