MLB weekend best bets: Burnes, Brewers to slow Blue Jays early
We have a jam-packed weekend of baseball ahead, so let's waste no time in getting to our best bets for all of the action.
Rockies (+140) @ Twins (-160)
June 24, 8:10 p.m. EST
This game is tied for the highest total of the night, and yet there still looks to be value on the over, especially early on.
Marquez enters this contest in horrendous form, owning a 6.21 ERA and 5.30 FIP over the last month. He has walked nearly 10% of the batters faced in that time, allowed almost two home runs per nine innings, and induced soft contact only 9% of the time.
All of that spells trouble against the Minnesota Twins and their lethal offense. The Twins own a .411 wOBA, .308 ISO, and 39.5% hard-hit rate at home in June, and unsurprisingly, they rank first in all three categories. This is perhaps the worst matchup a struggling righty could draw right now.
This is a good spot for the Colorado Rockies offense as well. While the Rockies are obviously much more potent at home than on the road, Target Field is a solid park for hitting.
Colorado should be able to plate a few runs against Bundy, considering his recent struggles. He has posted a 5.19 ERA, 5.13 FIP, and 38.5% hard-hit rate over the last month and has also given up a lot of flyballs, which is hardly ideal when opponents are drilling the ball against him.
Expect early fireworks in this one.
Bet: F5 innings over 5 (-110)
Red Sox (-125) @ Guardians (+105)
June 24, 7:10 p.m. EST
The Boston Red Sox are red hot, having won four consecutive games entering play today. While I like Boston's chances of extending that streak to five, there is more value in backing the club in the first half of the game.
Cal Quantrill is a pitcher the Red Sox should be able to get to. He owns a 4.58 FIP over the last month and has struck out a lowly 14.5% of the batters faced.
Boston is not going to make life any easier on him, as the team ranks 24th in K% against righties over the last six weeks while striking out just 20% of the time. The squad has also hit the ball very well, ranking sixth in wOBA during that same period.
The Red Sox put a lot of balls in play and hit it hard consistently, and a pitch-to-contact arm like Quantrill will likely struggle against a team with their profile. This has already been the case in his limited innings against this roster, allowing a .352 wOBA against them.
I don't see the Guardians keeping up against Nick Pivetta, who is sporting a solid 3.01 FIP over the last month while striking out nearly 10 batters per nine innings.
If Pivetta can hold them to two or less, the F5 moneyline should be in good shape. The reason I'm focusing on F5 - rather than the full game - is because the Guardians have one of the league's best bullpens.
It's best to target Boston's starting pitching advantage with the cushion of a push if the game remains tied through five.
Bet: Red Sox F5 ML (-120)
Blue Jays (TBD) @ Brewers (TBD)
June 25, 4:10 p.m. EST
Kikuchi is striking out batters at a high rate, but unfortunately, that's about all he's doing well for the Toronto Blue Jays right now. The lefty owns a putrid 7.85 ERA over the last month, and his FIP is equally bad at 7.93.
While an unsustainably large amount of the balls put in play are leading to hits, Kikuchi isn't doing much to help the cause.
Kikuchi has conceded more than three homers per nine innings over the last month. Walks have been an issue as well, with the southpaw giving a free pass more than 12% of the time.
The Milwaukee Brewers should be able to muster up some offense despite not hitting lefties very well, considering how poorly Kikuchi is pitching.
Even two or three runs should be more than enough for Burnes with the way he's pitching - he owns a 2.06 FIP and a whopping 36.8 K% over the last month of play.
Bet: Brewers F5 -0.5 (good to -125)
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.
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