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MLB plays of the day: Fade Matz, Mets in Philadelphia

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We're on a roll this week, hitting five of our last six MLB picks after Lance Lynn's masterful performance against the Rockies on Friday. Let's keep it rolling with our best bets for Saturday.

New York Mets (+150) at Philadelphia Phillies (-175)

Starting pitchers: Steven Matz (0-3, 8.20 ERA) vs. Aaron Nola (1-1, 2.79 ERA)

We've made a killing betting against vulnerable pitchers this year, and Matz certainly qualifies. The six-year veteran has allowed eight home runs in 2020 - the most by any pitcher in MLB - and his hard-hit rate (43.5%) is the highest of his career.

Matz came unglued in his most recent start against the Nationals, who tagged him for eight runs over 4 1/3 innings just six days after plating five runs in three frames versus the Mets starter. Things won't get any easier for Matz against a Phillies lineup that ranks first in xwOBA (.362) through the first three weeks of the campaign.

Nola, conversely, is pitching even better than he did during his All-Star season in 2018 when he finished third in Cy Young voting. He owns a 0.62 WHIP and 1.83 xFIP - both tops among qualified starters - and ranks in the 93rd percentile or better in strikeout rate (42.6%) and whiff rate (37.6%), as evidenced by a phenomenal 22-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio over his last two starts.

The Mets' bats can get hot when they make contact, but that will be a tough task with Nola on a stellar run. Unless Matz turns things around in a hurry, this one won't be close.

Pick: Phillies -1.5 (+110)

Cleveland Indians (-195) at Detroit Tigers (+165)

Starting pitchers: Shane Bieber (3-0, 1.63 ERA) vs. Spencer Turnbull (2-0, 2.00 ERA)

Who's ready for another Indians under? Cleveland's offense has picked it up recently, but the team is still 15-5 to the under this year and won't be able to tee off on the likes of Tigers righty Ivan Nova, who gave up eight runs to the Indians in 3 1/3 innings Friday.

Instead, Cleveland will face Turnbull, who's quietly been one of the most effective pitchers in baseball in 2020. The former second-round pick has posted three solid starts this year after upping the spin rate on his fastball and movement of his slider, the latter of which has a nasty 58.3% whiff rate. That will play well against an Indians lineup that's currently among MLB's worst at hitting sliders.

But this bet really comes down to Bieber. The early favorite for the AL Cy Young Award has recorded at least eight strikeouts and allowed five hits or fewer in all four of his starts this year, going at least six innings in each. He also boasts MLB's highest swinging strike rate (19%) and has punched out an absurd 43 batters with just five walks through 27 2/3 innings.

The Indians have won eight of Bieber's last nine starts, so it's worth backing him if you want to pay the price. But the cheaper option is the under, which is 11-6 in Bieber's last 13 starts and 6-1 in Turnbull's last seven.

Pick: Under 8 (-120)

(Odds source: theScore Bet)

C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.

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