Skip to content

What would a 48-game season have meant for MLB's recent champions?

Elsa / Getty Images Sport / Getty

With each passing day, the likelihood of Major League Baseball and the MLB Players Association arriving at a mutually agreeable plan for a 2020 season seems to dwindle. Both sides want to play as many games as possible, but the players want the full prorated salaries they negotiated in March, and the owners, with no gate revenues to bank on, don't want to honor that agreement. Months of bargaining have yielded little progress toward a compromise.

Still, all hope for a 2020 campaign isn't lost.

"There will be baseball," one high-ranking official told ESPN's Jeff Passan on Monday.

There just might not be a lot of it.

Commissioner Rob Manfred can unilaterally impose a schedule of any length so long as the pro rata agreement is honored, and with the owners ever mindful of their bottom lines and summer quickly starting to slip away, a dramatically shortened season looks increasingly probable. As of this past weekend, the owners were reportedly considering a 48-game campaign in 2020.

Many fans, of course, would question the legitimacy of such a season, impugning its champion, MVPs, and any .400 hitters. But it would still be baseball, complete with long-term implications.

With that in mind, let's look back at the five most recent champions to see where they stood after 48 games and explore the ramifications that a dramatically shortened season might have had for those clubs.

2019

Washington Nationals (93-69, 2nd in NL East)

No team in recent memory exposed the deceitfulness of small samples better than the defending champion Washington Nationals, who sat in fourth place in the National League East with a 19-29 record after 48 games last season. Owing to the early-season struggles of virtually everyone except Anthony Rendon and Howie Kendrick, their offense ranked among the worst in the majors and the bullpen was a dumpster fire.

Had the season ended before their resurgent second half, the Nationals would've missed the playoffs for the second year in a row - an alternative reality that could've dramatically altered the trajectory of the franchise.

Mike Ehrmann / Getty Images

In the wake of a miserable 48-game campaign, perhaps the Nationals don't retain general manager Mike Rizzo - who was already in hot water after Bryce Harper departed for the Philadelphia Phillies - or allow manager Dave Martinez to finish out his three-year contract. Without that championship, it's possible Washington focuses on bringing back Rendon rather than Stephen Strasburg, who benefited from the platform that was October. Or maybe they both leave.

Games 1-48 Games 115-162
Most wins AL 32 – Twins/Astros 33 – Astros
NL 31 – Dodgers 32 – 3 teams
Fewest wins AL 15 – Orioles 13 – Tigers
NL 16 – Marlins 14 – Marlins

2018

Boston Red Sox (108-54, 1st in AL East)

The Red Sox were simply indomitable two years ago, taking sole possession of first place in the American League East four days into the season and residing there for the remainder of the campaign outside of a one-week stretch in May and another 10-day swoon in June when they were jockeying with the New York Yankees. Boston (33-15) still would've secured a third straight division title after 48 games and may have indeed ended up with another World Series championship. There's also a decent chance that Dave Dombrowski would still be the president of baseball operations, too.

Boston Globe / Boston Globe / Getty

If the season ended after 48 games, the Red Sox would've never brokered the midseason deal with the Tampa Bay Rays for right-hander Nathan Eovaldi, who was not only instrumental in their World Series run but also unwittingly ended up a transformative figure for the franchise. Eovaldi's success down the stretch and throughout October ultimately compelled Dombrowski to sign him to a four-year, $68-million extension shortly after the World Series, a risky decision that paid no dividends in 2019.

The Red Sox stumbled to an 84-78 finish last year, and the Eovaldi deal presumably factored significantly into the organization's decision to part ways with Dombrowski in September - a move that presaged a new direction for the franchise when, months later, it traded away superstar outfielder Mookie Betts.

And if they don't win the short-season World Series without Eovaldi, it's possible the Red Sox spend lavishly in free agency to get over the hump - and stave off the Yankees - the following year, better allocating the money that ultimately went to the right-hander.

If Boston suffers another postseason defeat, maybe it focuses on keeping Betts, the franchise's best homegrown player in decades, rather than extending Xander Bogaerts ahead of the 2019 campaign. And if Dombrowski does lock up Betts, does he still lose his job?

Games 1-48 Games 115-162
Most wins AL 33 – Red Sox 33 – Rays
NL 29 – Brewers 31 – Rockies
Fewest wins AL 15 – Orioles 12 – Orioles
NL 16 – Reds 16 – 3 teams

2017

Houston Astros (101-61, 1st in AL West)

Boasting a prolific offense and stalwart rotation, the ascendant 2017 Astros - newly fortified by the additions of Carlos Beltran and Josh Reddick - would have cruised to a division title. They had the best overall record in the majors (32-16) and seemed poised to secure their first-ever World Series title. And, had the season ended there, the organization's reputation might not be in shambles following the sign-stealing scandal that upended baseball and turned almost everyone associated with the club into a pariah.

Omar Rawlings / Getty Images Sport / Getty

After all, according to Manfred's report, which saddled Houston with a laundry list of penalties and resulted in four men losing their jobs, the Astros didn't start their infamous trash can scheme until two months into the season.

With the playoffs looming after 48 games, though, perhaps they don't bother. And, in that case, maybe Houston wins the World Series without controversy, the organization isn't rightfully decimated by the commissioner, and fans maintain their confidence in baseball's integrity.

Games 1-48 Games 115-162
Most wins AL 32 – Astros 40 – Indians
NL 31 – Rockies 32 – Cubs
Fewest wins AL 21 – Royals/Mariners 12 – Tigers
NL 17 – Phillies/Padres 18 – Mets

2016

Chicago Cubs (103-58, 1st in NL Central)

The Cubs' years-long rebuild paid off handsomely in 2016 when a gaggle of homegrown studs and a few splashy free-agent additions snapped the franchise's 108-year World Series drought to cap a dream campaign during which Chicago spent just one day not in first in its division.

After 48 games, Chicago boasted the best record in the majors at 34-14 and still would've locked up the NL Central, along with home-field advantage throughout the entire postseason. And not only would the Cubs almost certainly still have that elusive championship - they were clearly the best team in baseball - but they would also be in a far better position today.

Jonathan Daniel / Getty Images Sport / Getty

Aroldis Chapman, whom they acquired from the New York Yankees ahead of the trade deadline, wasn't even that reliable for Chicago throughout the postseason, blowing three saves in seven opportunities - including his famous implosion in Game 7 of the World Series. The Cubs gave up Gleyber Torres to get him.

Chicago has since faded, missing the postseason in 2019 for the first time in five years after squeaking in as a wild-card team the season prior. Meanwhile, Torres has blossomed into one of the game's most electric young stars in New York. Maybe the Cubs don't win the World Series without Chapman - who returned to the Yankees as a free agent that winter - but their stranglehold over the division might remain tight to this day with Torres in the lineup.

Games 1-48 Games 115-162
Most wins AL 29 – Red Sox 31 – Red Sox
NL 34 – Cubs 30 – Cubs/Mets
Fewest wins AL 14 – Twins 13 – Twins
NL 14 – Braves 19 – 3 teams

2015

Kansas City Royals (95-67, 1st in AL Central)

Fresh off their first American League pennant in nearly three decades, the Royals came out of the gate strong in 2015, occupying the top spot in the AL Central for much of the first two months of the season. Had it ended early, though, Kansas City would've been forced to survive the AL wild-card game for the second straight year after forfeiting first place in the division by virtue of an extra-innings loss to the Cubs in Game 48.

The Royals would've then taken on the Detroit Tigers in the win-or-go-home showdown at Kauffman Stadium, which likely would've pitted either Jeremy Guthrie, Jason Vargas, or Chris Young against the Tigers' potent offense led by Miguel Cabrera, J.D. Martinez, and Yoenis Cespedes.

Elsa / Getty Images Sport / Getty

Would they have won that game to earn a date with the Astros in the ALDS? It's impossible to say. What's undeniable, though, is Kansas City would've had to navigate the alternative postseason with a roster considerably worse than the one it rode to a title that year. Johnny Cueto, who propelled the Royals to victories in three of his four playoff starts, was acquired days before the July trade deadline, as was Ben Zobrist, who hit .303/.365/.515 during the postseason.

Without those reinforcements, the Royals probably don't have enough juice to win a title, but it's possible they're in a better position today. Maybe they aren't riding high on their championship and opt not to re-sign outfielder Alex Gordon the following winter, a move that hamstrung them over the last few seasons. At the very least, Kansas City would now have a rotation anchored by Sean Manaea, who was the centerpiece of the Zobrist deal.

Games 1-48 Games 115-162
Most wins AL 30 – Astros 31 – Blue Jays/Rangers
NL 32 – Cardinals 31 – Cubs
Fewest wins AL 17 – A's 17 – A's
NL 16 – Brewers 13 – Reds
(Best and worst records from Games 1 to 48 and Games 115 to 162 via Stathead)

Jonah Birenbaum is theScore's senior MLB writer. He steams a good ham. You can find him on Twitter @birenball.

Daily Newsletter

Get the latest trending sports news daily in your inbox