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Best current bets to consider for regular-season HR leader

Ezra Shaw / Getty Images Sport / Getty

In the winter, we tried our hand at picking three players who could lead the majors in home runs for the regular season. Two of our top candidates - Giancarlo Stanton and Matt Olson - have already missed significant time, while our long shot - Rhys Hoskins - is right in the thick of things. Because of course.

But with the market still open, here are three players you should target midseason:

Favorite - Joey Gallo (5-1)

It stings to miss out on the preseason value price of 18-1 and settle with this number, but Gallo is just getting started with 12 round-trippers so far in 2019. Though he's struck out roughly 36 percent of the time, his barrel rate, exit velocity, and hard hit percentage are all through the roof. There's been nothing cheap about Gallo's home runs, either - they've traveled an average of 421 feet.

There's plenty to like about Gallo heading forward, too. The weather will start heating up in Arlington, where the ball travels farther. Also, the Rangers still have to make stops at T-Mobile Park and Angel Stadium, two of the friendliest confines for fly-ball hitters across MLB.

Overall, Gallo has the power and the beneficial park factors to sustain his success throughout the entire season, unlike most hitters who've gotten off to hot starts in 2019.

Underdog - Khris Davis (18-1)

We'll burn some value on Gallo and take some with Davis, whose torrid start was followed up by an extended slump and an injury to boot. After bashing 10 homers in his first 18 games, Davis went more than a month without one and suffered a hip contusion on May 9 that kept him out for a handful of days.

However, he's officially back.

Davis crushed his first two homers since April 12 on Monday against the Mariners. And the fact that he went more than 30 days without trotting the bases and is still tied for sixth in the majors in the homer department makes him arguably the biggest threat on the board.

Davis isn't as much of a Statcast savant as Gallo, but he'll still be making trips to hitter-friendly parks in the AL West. After opening the season behind only Stanton in the odds, he's someone you should snatch at this price.

Long shot - Alex Bregman (50-1)

Can you spot the trend? Bregman marks the third player we've plucked from the AL West, which is light on pitching other than his Astros.

After starting the year with one homer in his first 16 games, Bregman has obliterated the ball, parking nine over his last 13 contests. He doesn't have the physical profile of a perennial home run champion, but Bregman's advanced metrics point to him potentially pulling it off.

More specifically, his career-high barrel rate (10.1 percent) and launch angle (22.2) could mean the last 13 games are closer to the real Bregman than the first 16 were.

Alex Kolodziej is theScore's betting writer. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 11 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AlexKoIodziej.

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