Phillies' record-breaking deal with Harper far from 'stupid'

In November, Philadelphia Phillies owner John Middleton vowed to spend money this winter, and "maybe even be a little bit stupid about it," to nudge his long-rebuilding franchise over the hump following a promising 2018 season.

As of Wednesday night, even after adding Jean Segura, Andrew McCutchen, David Robertson, and J.T. Realmuto, we were still waiting for the stupidity. The Phillies' financial commitments for 2019, after all, still totaled less than $129 million - roughly $10 million below the league's average payroll from a year ago.

On Thursday, however, the Phillies finally made it rain, reportedly signing Bryce Harper to the largest contract in North American sports history, a 13-year, $330-million deal that includes a full no-trade clause and no opt-out clauses.

To be sure, $330 million is a lot of money. Is it stupid money, though? Only a cynic - and most of Major League Baseball's owners and executives - would say so. For the Phillies, Harper's most aggressive suitor this winter, this was precisely the investment needed to cap their transformative offseason and secure their future. And they did. Finally.

Here's what the Phillies get for Middleton's money (his net worth, by the way, is $3.2 billion, according to Forbes):

• A significantly greater chance of winning a World Series in the near future, which was clearly the focus of most of their offseason moves.
• A still-in-his-prime superstar to anchor the lineup once McCutchen and Realmuto presumably depart via free agency (Harper's only a few months older than Rhys Hoskins, who's widely regarded as one of the Phillies' building blocks).
• A relatively palatable annual luxury-tax hit of $25.38 million (for as long as the luxury tax exists, that is).
• Arguably the game's most marketable superstar.

By this point in the offseason, you already know everything there is to know about Harper. You know only a select group of players - mostly Hall of Famers - amassed as much WAR through their age-25 season as Harper, a six-time All-Star who became the youngest unanimous MVP in baseball history four years ago. You know he's blessed with prodigious power and plate discipline. You know advanced metrics don't look favorably upon his work in the outfield. And you also know his performance since his historic 2015 campaign suggests he may not be the franchise cornerstone many think he is.

Still, his volatility be damned, players as young and as good as Harper almost never hit free agency, and if the preceding facts led you to a conclusion other than "Sign Bryce Harper, you cowards," you've been duped by a league that continues to generate record revenues each year while simultaneously reducing the amount of money going to its players.

Besides, even if Harper ages conservatively, never again approximating his 2015 success, he'll still provide nearly $330 million in value over the life of his contract.

(Courtesy: FanGraphs' Contract Estimation Tool)

And if he rediscovers the magic that briefly turned him into Barry Bonds, Harper could actually provide surplus value for the Phillies, who were previously poised to vie for the 2019 NL East title with Nick Williams starting in right field every day.

Ultimately, given the Phillies' current financial situation and position on the win curve, it's difficult to see much risk here. There is no real short-term opportunity cost because there's literally nobody better to spend that money on, be it in-house or on the free-agent market. (The upcoming free-agent class took a major hit earlier this week when Nolan Arenado signed his extension with the Colorado Rockies, and neither Mike Trout or Mookie Betts will hit free agency soon enough.)

If the Phillies do want to shell out big bucks again in the near future, Harper's manageable annual average value won't keep them from doing so, at least from a luxury-tax perspective. With little in the way of long-term financial commitments - Scott Kingery is the only other player signed through 2023 - Harper's future salaries won't be a burden, even on a heavily backloaded deal.

This isn't the five-year, $125-million deal the Phillies gave a 30-year-old Ryan Howard in a misguided attempt to keep a good-but-aging core intact. This is an upside-laden gambit by a club on the verge of contention - and hoping to stay there - with the financial wiggle room to minimize risk throughout.

Ironically, in an offseason of broken promises - specifically, the covenant between the owners and players, and that between the owners and fans - the Phillies broke theirs, too. They didn't spend stupid money. They signed a generational talent to a fair-market deal.

Not that anybody in Philadelphia will mind.

Jonah Birenbaum is theScore's senior MLB writer. He steams a good ham. You can find him on Twitter @birenball.