Fantasy: 8 players who won't live up to 2018 numbers
Get ready for your season with theScore's 2019 Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit.
It's time to pump the brakes on the hype train with fantasy drafts just around the corner. Resisting the temptation to take a player coming off a career season will help in the long run, even if colleagues or friends won't necessarily agree.
Here are eight players who won't reproduce the same numbers in 2019.
(Average Draft Positions as of March 6, courtesy of FantasyPros)
Adalberto Mondesi - Royals - SS/2B - ADP 78
Mondesi was a fantasy monster after Aug. 1, as he was a top-five overall hitter over the final two months of the season. The 23-year-old finished with 14 home runs and 32 stolen bases in just 75 games. The eye-popping numbers vaulted Mondesi into a spot where unrealistic expectations may cloud the judgment of some during a draft. His elite performance is limited to a small sample size, so picking him in this spot is risky considering Corey Seager could still be on the board. If Jean Segura or Matt Carpenter are still available, there should be no hesitation to pass on Mondesi.
Edwin Encarnacion - Mariners - 1B/DH - ADP 110
Encarnacion will be taking his parrot for fewer walks in 2019. The aging slugger has hit 30-plus homers - including 42 in 2012 and 2016 - in seven straight seasons. However, that streak is likely to end. His .346 wOBA in 2018 was the lowest of his career since 2011 and hitting behind Francisco Lindor and Jose Ramirez provided Encarnacion with plenty of opportunities to collect RBIs, which may be limited on a rebuilding Seattle Mariners team. A big drop-off has been on the horizon for years and this may be the season it happens.
David Peralta - Diamondbacks - OF - ADP 127
Peralta could be the best position player left for the Arizona Diamondbacks after the departures of Paul Goldschmidt and A.J. Pollock. The 31-year-old's 2018 breakout saw his home run total jump from 14 in 2017 to 30 and RBI total rise from 57 to 87. Arizona's offense will likely take a step back in 2019, and teams will focus on limiting Peralta's bat. Last year's numbers were also bolstered by a red-hot August, so his consistency should be monitored closely.
Jed Lowrie - Mets - 2B/3B - ADP 242
Lowrie was solid for the Oakland Athletics in 2018 as the team's predominant No. 3 hitter. He will probably not replicate that success in Queens with the Mets planning to use him further down the lineup. Entering his age-35 season, it will be difficult for Lowrie to best the career-high 23 home runs and 99 RBIs he produced as a first-time All-Star. Durability could be a problem, as the third baseman has played 150-plus games over the course of a season just three times in his 11-year career and is already dealing with a knee issue this spring.
Trevor Bauer - Indians - SP - ADP 35
Bauer finally put it all together in 2018. The right-hander went 12-6 with a 2.21 ERA and 221 strikeouts across 175 1/3 innings for the Indians and was in the Cy Young conversation before he suffered a stress fracture in his right fibula. Prior to last season's sparkling FIP of 2.44, Bauer's career-best mark came in 2017 when he posted a 3.88, preceded by 3.99 in 2016 and 4.33 in 2015. Better options at this point in the draft include Noah Syndergaard and Bauer's teammate Carlos Carrasco. Also, if Blake Snell is around for some reason, that should be a no brainer.
Blake Treinen - Athletics - RP - ADP 62
Treinen is still one of the best closers in baseball, but asking him to replicate a season in which he produced a 0.78 ERA is unfeasible. The 30-year-old's career FIP is 3.05, so expect Treinen to allow more earned runs in 2019. The Athletics will be hard-pressed to win 97 games again after a dream season, which could result in his save opportunities taking a dip. Considering Treinen could be the first closer off the board, it might be a better option to go with Edwin Diaz, Kenley Jansen, Aroldis Chapman, or Craig Kimbrel.
Miles Mikolas - Cardinals - SP - ADP 107
To say Mikolas came out of nowhere in 2018 would be an understatement. The 30-year-old returned after a three-year hiatus in Japan to post an 18-4 record with a 2.83 ERA despite a low 6.5 K/9 rate. Fantasy owners will need to rely on Mikolas' command, as his walk rate ranked first among qualified starters last year. Ultimately, it might be a safer bet to go with the likes of Zack Wheeler, Robbie Ray, or Masahiro Tanaka in this range.
Charlie Morton - Rays - SP - ADP 118
Morton found the fountain of youth in Texas, and fantasy owners of the 35-year-old will be hoping he brings some of that magic with him to the Tampa Bay Rays. Unfortunately, Morton will be in tough to replicate his numbers from last season after going 15-3 with a 3.13 ERA and 10.8 K/9 rate with the Houston Astros. Durability could be a question, as Morton's strikeout rate dropped seven points to 24.2 percent in the second half of the season. He also struggled when facing a batting order for the third time, so the Rays could use him after an opener. Playing in the vaunted AL East doesn't help, either, as Morton will see two of the best offenses in baseball multiple times in 2019.