Predicting when big free-agent moves will start based on the last decade
Free agency has been open for nearly three weeks, and so far, it's been a slow process.
While Justin Upton re-signed with the Los Angeles Angels and Masahiro Tanaka decided not to opt out of his contract with the New York Yankees, the market has been quiet, with a few minor-league deals having been agreed upon, but nothing else of significance.
The GM meetings concluded earlier this week, which is usually the precursor to moves being made, so things could pick up soon.
With things quieter than in years past, let's try to predict when the first big-league deal will go down, when the first multi-year deal will drop, and when the likely outcome date for the largest free-agent contract will be.
First, here's a look at the last 10 years of free agency, pinpointing when the first big-league deal was signed, when the first multi-year deal was agreed upon, and who landed the largest contract in each year.
2006-07
(Photo courtesy: Action Images)
First MLB deal signed
PLAYER | CONTRACT | SIGNED WITH | SIGN DATE |
---|---|---|---|
Ramon Martinez | 1YR $850K | LAD | NOV 7 2006 |
First notable multi-year deal signed
PLAYER | CONTRACT | SIGNED WITH | SIGN DATE |
---|---|---|---|
Aramis Ramirez | 5YR $75M | CHC | NOV 12 2006 |
Largest contract signed (by dollar amount)
PLAYER | CONTRACT | SIGNED WITH | SIGN DATE |
---|---|---|---|
Alfonso Soriano | 8YR $136M | CHC | NOV 20 2006 |
2007-08
(Photo courtesy: Getty Images)
First MLB deal signed
PLAYER | CONTRACT | SIGNED WITH | SIGN DATE |
---|---|---|---|
Marlon Anderson | 2YR $2M | NYM | NOV 6 2007 |
First notable multi-year deal signed
PLAYER | CONTRACT | SIGNED WITH | SIGN DATE |
---|---|---|---|
Mike Lowell | 3YR $37.5M | BOS | NOV 19 2007 |
Largest contract signed
PLAYER | CONTRACT | SIGNED WITH | SIGN DATE |
---|---|---|---|
Alex Rodriguez | 10YR $275M | NYY | DEC 13 2007 |
2008-09
(Photo courtesy: Getty Images)
First MLB deal signed
PLAYER | CONTRACT | SIGNED WITH | SIGN DATE |
---|---|---|---|
Jason LaRue | 1YR $950K | STL | OCT 31 2008 |
First notable multi-year deal signed
PLAYER | CONTRACT | SIGNED WITH | SIGN DATE |
---|---|---|---|
Ryan Dempster | 4YR $52M | CHC | NOV 19 2008 |
Largest contract signed
PLAYER | CONTRACT | SIGNED WITH | SIGN DATE |
---|---|---|---|
Mark Teixeira | 8YR $180M | NYY | JAN 6 2009 |
2009-10
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First MLB deal signed
PLAYER | CONTRACT | SIGNED WITH | SIGN DATE |
---|---|---|---|
John Grabow | 2YR $7.5M | CHC | NOV 19 2009 |
First notable multi-year deal signed
PLAYER | CONTRACT | SIGNED WITH | SIGN DATE |
---|---|---|---|
Placido Polanco | 3YR $18M | PHI | DEC 3 2009 |
Largest contract signed
PLAYER | CONTRACT | SIGNED WITH | SIGN DATE |
---|---|---|---|
Matt Holliday | 7YR $120M | STL | JAN 5 2010 |
2010-11
(Photo courtesy: Getty Images)
First MLB deal signed and first notable multi-year deal signed
PLAYER | CONTRACT | SIGNED WITH | SIGN DATE |
---|---|---|---|
Jhonny Peralta | 2YR $11.25M | DET | NOV 8 2010 |
Largest contract signed
PLAYER | CONTRACT | SIGNED WITH | SIGN DATE |
---|---|---|---|
Carl Crawford | 7YR $142M | BOS | DEC 11 2010 |
2011-12
(Photo courtesy: Action Images)
First MLB deal signed
PLAYER | CONTRACT | SIGNED WITH | SIGN DATE |
---|---|---|---|
John McDonald | 2YR $3M | ARI | NOV 2 2011 |
First notable multi-year deal signed
PLAYER | CONTRACT | SIGNED WITH | SIGN DATE |
---|---|---|---|
Jonathan Papelbon | 4YR $50M | PHI | NOV 14 2011 |
Largest contract signed
PLAYER | CONTRACT | SIGNED WITH | SIGN DATE |
---|---|---|---|
Albert Pujols | 10YR $250M | LAA | DEC 8 2011 |
2012-13
(Photo courtesy: Getty Images)
First MLB deal signed and first notable multi-year deal signed
PLAYER | CONTRACT | SIGNED WITH | SIGN DATE |
---|---|---|---|
Hisashi Iwakuma | 2YR $14M | SEA | NOV 2 2012 |
Largest contract signed
PLAYER | CONTRACT | SIGNED WITH | SIGN DATE |
---|---|---|---|
Zack Greinke | 6YR $147M | LAD | DEC 10 2012 |
2013-14
(Photo courtesy: Getty Images)
First MLB deal signed
PLAYER | CONTRACT | SIGNED WITH | SIGN DATE |
---|---|---|---|
Jason Frasor | 1YR $1.75M | TEX | NOV 4 2013 |
First notable multi-year deal signed
PLAYER | CONTRACT | SIGNED WITH | SIGN DATE |
---|---|---|---|
Marlon Byrd | 2YR $16M | PHI | NOV 12 2013 |
Largest contract signed
PLAYER | CONTRACT | SIGNED WITH | SIGN DATE |
---|---|---|---|
Robinson Cano | 10YR $240M | SEA | DEC 12 2013 |
2014-15
(Photo courtesy: Action Images)
First MLB deal signed
PLAYER | CONTRACT | SIGNED WITH | SIGN DATE |
---|---|---|---|
Chris Young | 1YR $2.5M | NYY | NOV 9 2014 |
First notable multi-year deal signed
PLAYER | CONTRACT | SIGNED WITH | SIGN DATE |
---|---|---|---|
Michael Cuddyer | 2YR $21M | NYM | NOV 10 2014 |
Largest contract signed (by dollar amount)
PLAYER | CONTRACT | SIGNED WITH | SIGN DATE |
---|---|---|---|
Max Scherzer | 7YR $217M | WSH | JAN 21 2015 |
2015-16
(Photo courtesy: Action Images)
First MLB deal signed
PLAYER | CONTRACT | SIGNED WITH | SIGN DATE |
---|---|---|---|
A.J. Pierzynski | 1YR $3M | ATL | NOV 12 2015 |
First notable multi-year deal signed
PLAYER | CONTRACT | SIGNED WITH | SIGN DATE |
---|---|---|---|
Marco Estrada | 2YR $26M | TOR | NOV 13 2015 |
Largest contract signed
PLAYER | CONTRACT | SIGNED WITH | SIGN DATE |
---|---|---|---|
David Price | 7YR $217M | BOS | DEC 4 2015 |
2016-17
(Photo courtesy: Getty Images)
First MLB deal signed
PLAYER | CONTRACT | SIGNED WITH | SIGN DATE |
---|---|---|---|
Andrew Bailey | 1YR $1M | LAA | NOV 9 2016 |
First notable multi-year deal signed
PLAYER | CONTRACT | SIGNED WITH | SIGN DATE |
---|---|---|---|
Charlie Morton | 2YR $14M | HOU | NOV 16 2016 |
Largest contract signed
PLAYER | CONTRACT | SIGNED WITH | SIGN DATE |
---|---|---|---|
Yoenis Cespedes | 4YR $110M | NYM | NOV 30 2016 |
Based on the averages of the first major-league deal being signed (Nov. 7), the first multi-year contract being inked (Nov. 14), and when the biggest free agents usually sign (anywhere between Nov. 25 and Jan. 10, but usually in the second week of December), it appears free agency is behind by about 11 days compared to the past 10 years.
The data shows the first big-league deal should have happened already, while multi-year deals should already be in play as well. Expect both of these to come before the end of the month. Also, based on the evidence above, the first deal will likely go to a catcher, reliever, or utility player, while the past two seasons suggest a multi-year deal will be handed to a starter.
One thing appears to be certain: Don't expect one of the big guys (Yu Darvish, Jake Arrieta, J.D. Martinez) to sign until December, when they can grab some major coin just in time for Christmas.